Strained Relations in the High North : Steps-to-War Analysis of Conflict Potential in the Arctic

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Authors	VLČEK Tomáš CHOVANČÍK Martin UHLÍŘOVÁ Kateřina JIRUŠEK Martin
Year of publication	2024
Type	Article in Periodical
Magazine / Source	Europe-Asia Studies
MU Faculty or unit	Faculty of Social Studies
Citation
web	https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471
Doi	http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471
Keywords	Arctic; Steps-to-War; Dispute; Military; Geopolitics; Russia; Arctic-8; Conflict
Attached files	Strained_Relations_in_the_High_North_Steps-to-War_Analysis_of_Conflict_Potential_in_the_Arctic.pdf
Description	Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, tensions have heightened in the international relations and security environment, including the Arctic region. We are witnessing renewed geopolitical rivalry and military tensions between the Arctic states. In this article, a steps-to-war model of conflict escalation is used to calculate whether the conflict potential in the Arctic is rising. While our results confirm an increase in confrontational behaviour according to militarisation and coalition-building markers, the rivalry marker shows a rise in cooperative behaviour. Hence, in our model, the preconditions signalling an increased likelihood of international armed conflict are not fulfilled.
Related projects:	ARCTIC Centre for Human-to-Environment Oriented Studies: Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arctic